Borehole Breakout Prediction Based on Multi-Output Machine Learning Models Using the Walrus Optimization Algorithm

Abstract

Borehole breakouts significantly influence drilling operations’ efficiency and economics. Accurate evaluation of breakout size (angle and depth) can enhance drilling strategies and hold potential for in situ stress magnitude inversion. In this study, borehole breakout size is approached as a complex nonlinear problem with multiple inputs and outputs. Three hybrid multi-output models, integrating commonly used machine learning algorithms (artificial neural networks ANN, random forests RF, and Boost) with the Walrus optimization algorithm (WAOA) optimization techniques, are developed. Input features are determined through literature research (friction angle, cohesion, rock modulus, Poisson’s ratio, mud pressure, borehole radius, in situ stress), and 501 related datasets are collected to construct the borehole breakout size dataset. Model performance is assessed using the Pearson Correlation Coefficient (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Variance Accounted For (VAF), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Results indicate that WAOA-ANN exhibits excellent and stable prediction performance, particularly on the test set, outperforming the single-output ANN model. Additionally, SHAP sensitivity analysis conducted on the WAOA-ANN model reveals that maximum horizontal principal stress (σH) is the most influential parameter in predicting both the angle and depth of borehole breakout. Combining the results of the studies and analyses conducted, WAOA-ANN is considered to be an effective hybrid multi-output model in the prediction of borehole breakout size.