Detection of Glacial Refugia and Post-Glacial Colonization Routes of Morphologically Cryptic Marsh Frog Species (Anura: Ranidae: Pelophylax) Using Environmental Niche Modeling

Abstract

Studying the distribution of morphologically cryptic animal species is always a very difficult task. Because most marsh frog species (the Pelophylax ridibundus complex) are cryptic, we used molecular markers to identify them. Three marsh frog species (P. ridibundus, P. kurtmuelleri and P. cf. bedriagae) inhabit the northern part of Western Palearctic. We created a database of localities and built models of their modern distribution. These models showed that the most suitable habitats are on the north of the Mediterranean region for P. cf. bedriagae, temperate Europe for P. ridibundus, and the Balkan coastal areas for P. kurtmuelleri. The projection of the modern ecological niches under the late-Quaternary climatic conditions showed that the range of P. kurtmuelleri remained largely unchanged during the period, whereas the ranges of P. cf. bedriagae and especially P. ridibundus changed greatly over time. During the Last Glacial Maximum, the presumed range of P. cf. bedriagae covered a relatively large area in the north of the Mediterranean region and the south of European Russia. Glacial refugia of P. ridibundus were apparently located in the northern Balkans, the northern coast of the Black and Azov seas, and possibly in Western Europe. The northward long-distance post-glacial dispersal of P. ridibundus occurred from refugia in the northeastern Balkans and the Black-Azov seas region. Since the Late Pleistocene, suitable habitats for P. cf. bedriagae in southern Russia began to decline, but local habitats for P. ridibundus become more suitable. Therefore, a mosaic of populations consisting of these both species and their hybrids has now been found here.