Bayesian Estimation of the True Seroprevalence and Risk Factor Analysis of Bovine Leukemia Virus Infection in Pakistan

Abstract

The objective of this study was to determine the true seroprevalence of bovine leukemia virus (BLV) infection in dairy cattle from Pakistan at the animal and herd-level. We tested 1380 dairy cattle from 451 herds and 92 water buffalo. The sera were tested by ELISA and the results were analyzed using Bayesian inference. The median posterior estimate of the herd level true BLV prevalence was 1.4%, with a 95% credible interval (CI) 0.7–3.1, whereas the median posterior estimate of the within-farm true seroprevalence was 3.8% with a 95% CI 2.8–4.8. All 92 sera collected from water buffalo were negative. Several risk factors potentially associated with seropositivity to BLV infections in Pakistan were analyzed using logistic regression model based on calculation of an odds ratio (OR). The study showed an association between seropositivity and medium herd (≥50) size (OR = 23.57, 95% CI: 3.01–103.48). Common housing of indigenous cattle with exotic-breed cattle (OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 06–2.35) or housing indigenous or their crossbred cattle with exotic-breed cattle (OR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.14–3.01) had no effect on the BLV seroprevalence. Similarly, common housing of cattle and water buffalo was not risk factor for increased BLV seropositivity (OR = 27.10, 95% CI: 0.63–119.34).