High Penetration of Renewable Energy Sources and Power Market Formation for Countries in Energy Transition: Assessment via Price Analysis and Energy Forecasting

Abstract

Climate change as a challenge we all are facing, varying degree of economic development as a result of COVID-19, the volatility in energy prices and political as well as other factors, most countries have restructured their electricity markets in order to facilitate the use of green renewable energy. The right energy mix in a period of energy transformation is the best strategy for achieving reduction of carbon emissions. Bulgaria is a special case because it has expanded the use of solar and wind energy exponentially, without conducting an adequate preliminary forecast analysis and formulating a parallel strategy for the development and expansion of the energy storage infrastructure. In this regard, the article is focused on how the power energy market is structured with the increasingly large-scale and global penetration of renewable energy sources as primary energy sources, observing several key factors influencing the energy transition. Due to the cyclical nature of energy production and the necessity for a smooth and efficient transition, a long-term seasonal storage plan should be considered. Furthermore, solar energy production facilities have a greater share of installed power, but wind power facilities generate a roughly equivalent amount of electric energy over the course of a year. One of the aims of this research is to discover an appropriate model for predicting the electricity output of wind and solar facilities located in Bulgaria that can be used to ease the transition process. Based on thorough data analysis of energy production over the past 11 years and 5 months, our findings suggest that a SARIMA model might be appropriate, as it takes into account the seasonal cycles in the production process.