Development and Verification of a Regional Residential Electricity Consumption Estimation Method

Abstract

In pursuing Japan’s target of net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, decarbonization strategies at the regional level have been taking place nationally. Some successes have been achieved in the residential sector in achieving decarbonization at the regional level due to improvements in the advancement of energy-saving technologies. An important prerequisite to achieving further decarbonization in the residential sector is understanding household electricity consumption of power demand objects. This study constructed a method for predicting residential electricity consumption in a case study region. First, we set up six models of household composition for scenario exercises. Then, we used the residential energy estimation based on daily activities (REEDA) method to calculate the hourly electricity consumption of each household composition in the four seasons based on the duration of daily life activity. Finally, we separately explore the impact of housing performance (insulation, airtightness), air-conditioning patterns (intermittent operation method in a habitable room/continuous operation method in a habitable room/continuous operation method in all rooms), and geographical location on residential air conditional electricity consumption. The output is a regional residential energy estimate method that can consider multiple key variables. We verified the developed model by (1) comparing the estimated output with the Japan Energy Database and (2) testing the method for various residential areas in Japan. The results showed an accuracy level greater than 75% and nationwide applicability.