Response to Climate Change and GAP Analysis of Thuja koraiensis Nakai

Abstract

Due to global warming and increased human activity, the wild population of Thuja koraiensis Nakai (T. koraiensis) has dropped, placing it in danger. An understanding of the response of T. koraiensis to climate change and the determination of priority conservation areas are tremendously critical for proper conservation. Using sixty-nine T. koraiensis distribution points and seven environmental factors, the Maxent model was used to predict potentially suitable areas and spatial variation patterns of T. koraiensis and the Marxan conservation planning model was used to evaluate conservation gap areas. Research shows that the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of potentially suitable areas for T. koraiensis included elevation, precipitation of the driest month, isothermality and precipitation of the wettest quarter. Under the current climatic conditions, highly suitable areas for T. koraiensis are mainly distributed in the Changbai Mountains within Samjiyon County and Baishan City, the Hamgyong Mountains within the western part of Hamgyong-Bukto Province, and the T’aeback-Sanmaek Mountains within Gangwon-do, Kumgangsan Special Administrative Region and Kangwon-do. Under future climate conditions, suitable areas for T. koraiensis show a decreasing trend, and the suitable area will be reduced to higher elevations, and the Hamgyong Mountains may become a refuge. Based on GAP analysis, 69.69% of the priority conservation areas of T. koraiensis are located outside of the nature reserve, and these conservation gap areas are primarily in the southern part of the Changbai Mountains and Kangwon-do.