Process-Based Modeling of Phenology and Radial Growth in Pinus tabuliformis in Response to Climate Factors over a Cold and Semi-Arid Region

Abstract

(1) Background: Climate change significantly impacts the phenology and dynamics of radial tree growth in alpine dryland forests. However, there remains a scarcity of reliable information on the physiological processes of tree growth and cambial phenology in response to long-term climate change in cold and semi-arid regions. (2) Methods: We employed the process-based Vaganov–Shashkin (VS) model to simulate the phenology and growth patterns of Chinese pine (Pinus tabuliformis) in the eastern Qilian Mountains, northeastern Tibetan Plateau. The model was informed by observed temperature and precipitation data to elucidate the relationships between climate factors and tree growth. (3) Results: The simulated tree-ring index closely aligned with the observed tree-ring chronology, validating the VS model’s effectiveness in capturing the climatic influences on radial growth and cambial phenology of P. tabuliformis. The model outputs revealed that the average growing season spanned from mid-April to mid-October and experienced an extension post-1978 due to ongoing warming trends. However, it is important to note that an increase in the duration of the growing season did not necessarily result in a higher level of radial growth. (4) Conclusions: While the duration of the growing season was primarily determined by temperature, the growth rate was predominantly influenced by water conditions during the growing season, making it the most significant factor contributing to ring formation. Our study provides valuable insights into the potential mechanisms underlying tree growth responses to climate change in cold and semi-arid regions.