The Spatial Shifts and Vulnerability Assessment of Ecological Niches under Climate Change Scenarios for Betula luminifera, a Fast-Growing Precious Tree in China

Abstract

The spatial shifts and vulnerability assessments of ecological niches for trees will offer fresh perspectives for sustainable development and preservation of forests, particularly within the framework of rapid climate change. Betula luminifera is a fast-growing native timber plantation species in China, but the natural resources have been severely damaged. Here, a comprehensive habitat suitability model (including ten niche-based GIS modeling algorithms) was developed that integrates three types of environmental factors, namely, climatic, soil, and ultraviolet variables, to assess the species contemporary and future distribution of suitable habitats across China. Our results suggest that the habitats of B. luminifera generally occur in subtropical areas (about 1.52 × 106 km2). However, the growth of B. luminifera is profoundly shaped by the nuances of its local environment, the most reasonable niche spaces are only 1.15 × 106 km2 when limiting ecological factors (soil and ultraviolet) are considered, generally considered as the core production region. Furthermore, it is anticipated that species-suitable habitats will decrease by 10 and 8% with climate change in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. Our study provided a clear understanding of species-suitable habitat distribution and identified the reasons why other niche spaces are unsuitable in the future, which can warn against artificial cultivation and conservation planning.