Testing the Social Bubble Hypothesis on the Early Dynamics of a Scientific Project: The FET Flagship Candidate FuturICT (2010–2013)

Abstract

We present an analysis of a large emerging scientific project in the light provided by the social bubbles hypothesis (SBH) that we have introduced in earlier papers. The SBH claims that, during an innovation boom or technological revolution, strong social interactions between enthusiastic supporters weave a network of reinforcing feedbacks that leads to widespread endorsement and extraordinary commitment, beyond what would be rationalized by a standard cost–benefit analysis. By probing the (Future and Emerging Technologies) FET Flagship candidate FuturICT project, as it developed in 2010–2013, we aimed at better understanding how a favorable climate was engineered, allowing the dynamics and risk-taking behaviors to evolve. We document that significant risk-taking was indeed clearly found—especially during workshops and meetings, for instance, in the form of the time allocation of participants, who seemed not to mind their precious time being given to the project and who exhibited many signs of enthusiasm. In this sense, the FuturICT project qualifies as a social bubble in the making when considered at the group level. In contrast, risk-perception at the individual level remained high and not everyone involved shared the exuberance cultivated by the promoters of FuturICT. As a consequence, those not unified under the umbrella of the core vision built niches for themselves that were stimulating enough to stay with the project, but not on a basis of blind over-optimism. Our detailed field study shows that, when considering individuals in isolation, the characteristics associated with a social bubble can vary significantly in the presence of other factors besides exaggerated risk-taking.