Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of Forest Fire Occurrence Based on Remote Sensing Data: An Analysis in Anhui, China

Abstract

A forest fire is a destructive disaster that is difficult to handle and rescue and can pose a significant threat to ecosystems, society, and humans. Since driving factors and their effects on forest fires change over time and space, exploring the spatiotemporal patterns of forest fire occurrence should be addressed. To better understand the patterns of forest fire occurrence and provide valuable insights for policy making, we employed the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model to investigate the varying spatiotemporal correlations between driving factors (vegetation, topography, meteorology, social economy) and forest fires in Anhui province from 2012 to 2020. Then we identified the dominant factors and conducted the spatiotemporal distribution analysis. Moreover, we innovatively introduced nighttime light as a socioeconomic driving factor of forest fires since it can directly reflect more comprehensive information about the social economy than other socioeconomic factors commonly used in previous studies. This study applied remote sensing data since the historical statistic data were not detailed. Here, we obtained the following results. (1) There was a spatial autocorrelation of forest fires in Anhui from 2012 to 2020, with high-high aggregation of forest fires in eastern cities. (2) The GTWR model outperformed the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model and the Geographically Weighted Regression model (GWR), implying the necessity of considering temporal heterogeneity in addition to spatial heterogeneity. (3) The relationships between driving factors and forest fires were spatially and temporally heterogeneous. (4) The forest fire occurrence was mainly dominated by socioeconomic factors, while the dominant role of vegetation, topography, and meteorology was relatively limited. It’s worth noting that nighttime light played the most extensive dominant role in forest fires of Anhui among all the driving factors in the years except 2015.