Reservoir Induced Deformation Analysis for Several Filling and Operational Scenarios at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Impoundment

Abstract

Addressing seasonal water uncertainties and increased power generation demand has sparked a global rise in large-scale hydropower projects. To this end, the Blue Nile impoundment behind the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) will encompass an areal extent of ~1763.3 km2 and hold ~67.37 Gt (km3) of water with maximum seasonal load changes of ~27.93 (41% of total)—~36.46 Gt (54% of total) during projected operational scenarios. Five different digital surface models (DSMs) are compared to spatially overlapping spaceborne altimeter products and hydrologic loads for the GERD are derived from the DSM with the least absolute elevation difference. The elastic responses to several filling and operational strategies for the GERD are modeled using a spherically symmetric, non-rotating, elastic, and isotropic (SNREI) Earth model. The maximum vertical and horizontal flexural responses from the full GERD impoundment are estimated to be 11.99 and 1.99 cm, regardless of the full impoundment period length. The vertical and horizontal displacements from the highest amplitude seasonal reservoir operational scenarios are 38–55% and 34–48% of the full deformation, respectively. The timing and rate of reservoir inflow and outflow affects the hydrologic load density on the Earth’s surface, and, as such, affects not only the total elastic response but also the distance that the deformation extends from the reservoir’s body. The magnitudes of the hydrologic-induced deformation are directly related to the size and timing of reservoir fluxes, and an increased knowledge of the extent and magnitude of this deformation provides meaningful information to stakeholders to better understand the effects from many different impoundment and operational strategies.