The Impact of Removing Coal from Poland’s Energy Mix on Selected Aspects of the Country’s Energy Security

Abstract

The article presents the results of research on the impact of the transformation of Poland’s energy mix on the country’s energy security. Since energy security is a very complex problem, the impact of the transformation has been verified in three aspects, i.e., greenhouse gas emissions; energy availability in terms of its quantity, sufficient to meet the needs of citizens; and energy prices. The MANOVA model was used in the research. The model allowed us to examine the relationship between the share of coal in the energy mix and the above-mentioned factors. The MANOVA model allowed us to determine the influence of one explanatory variable on several response variables. The results obtained enabled the verification of the adequacy of the changes that have been made in the energy mix over the last 10 years. As is shown, the factor that is related to changes in the share of coal in the energy mix is the energy surplus, while a relationship between both prices and emission levels and the changes in the share of coal in the energy mix has not been established. Furthermore, a simulation was carried out, which showed that the correlation between price, emissions, and the share in the mix was obtained only by reducing 2017–2020 emissions by an average of 6% and prices by 17%.