Assessing Regional Variation in Support for the Radical Right-Wing Party ‘Alternative for Germany’ (AfD)—A Novel Application of Institutional Anomie Theory across German Districts

Abstract

The paper at hand aims to address a research gap by examining the spatial impact of economic and non-economic institutions on regional variation in the support for the German populist far-right party ‘Alternative for Germany (AfD)’. Adopting an interdisciplinary approach and drawing on institutional anomie theory, the study explores the relationship between economic dominance—economic inequality and economic strength—and regional AfD vote share, as well as the role of non-economic institutions in shaping support for the party. Using various regional indicators, the study assesses the strength of different institutions and their impact on the AfD’s electoral results in the year 2021 across 401 German districts (NUTS 3-level). The results point to significant differences between eastern and western Germany in the analysis of regional populist voting patterns. Economic dominance emerges as a stronger predictor of the AfD’s vote share in eastern regions. However, the findings on the protective effect of strong non-economic institutions against AfD voting are ambiguous and partly contrary to theoretical expectations. Overall, the study’s findings show that the newly introduced indicators deduced from institutional anomie theory contribute to the existing literature to help better understand regional variances in AfD support. Furthermore, the study contributes to the existing literature on the rise of contemporary radical right movements by employing Karl Polanyi’s framework of ‘disembedded’ markets. In doing so, it sheds light on the complex interplay between social change, anomic tendencies, and the growth of radical right movements in capitalist societies.