pELECTRE-Tri: Probabilistic ELECTRE-Tri Method—Application for the Energy Renovation of Buildings

Abstract

This paper proposes the method pELECTRE Tri, a novel probabilistic Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) method using the traditional ELECTRE Tri, probability distribution, and Monte Carlo simulation to support informed decision-making in complex and uncertain decision environments. The proposed method is illustrated through a case study involving the renovation of three social housing buildings. The paper provides new insights into the application of probabilistic sorting MCDM in the context of energy efficiency in buildings and highlights the benefits of using probabilities rather than crisp values to categorize alternatives enabling stakeholders to make better use of available resources, especially when dealing with a large dataset of energy measures with different features. The methodology implemented in Python (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.7967655) is available as an open source.