The Spatiotemporal Variation in Biodiversity and Its Response to Different Future Development Scenarios: A Case Study of Guilin as an Internationally Renowned Tourist Destination in China

Abstract

The preservation of biodiversity is crucial for maintaining ecological balance and promoting the harmonious development of mankind and nature. To formulate a biodiversity conservation plan for Guilin in China and accurately evaluate the impact of conservation measures on regional biodiversity, this study combined the InVEST model (v 3.7.0), the GeoSOS-FLUS model (v 2.3), and the landscape pattern index, analyzing the spatiotemporal changes in biodiversity from 2000 to 2020 in Guilin and simulating biodiversity under different development scenarios in 2040. The results showed the following: (1) The biodiversity index in Guilin displayed a declining trend, with the average annual value decreasing from 0.875 in 2000 to 0.870 in 2020. The area experiencing a reduction in biodiversity was primarily concentrated around the city. (2) The biodiversity level of each district and county had a large spatiotemporal difference, with the overall distribution characteristics of “higher in the northwest, southwest, and east, and lower in the northeast, southeast and central”. (3) The biodiversity hotspots were identified as priority areas for conservation; woodland and wetland were effectively protected, and the expansion of construction land and arable land was limited under the ecological protection scenario compared with the natural development scenario. (4) The annual average value of the biodiversity index of Guilin could reach 0.872 in 2040 after the adoption of ecological conservation measures, which is 0.013 higher than the natural development scenario. The results of this study can provide guidance for the construction of a national sustainable development model city and land use planning in Guilin, as well as a scientific reference for the creation of biodiversity conservation policies.