GCN–Informer: A Novel Framework for Mid-Term Photovoltaic Power Forecasting

Abstract

Predicting photovoltaic (PV) power generation is a crucial task in the field of clean energy. Achieving high-accuracy PV power prediction requires addressing two challenges in current deep learning methods: (1) In photovoltaic power generation prediction, traditional deep learning methods often generate predictions for long sequences one by one, significantly impacting the efficiency of model predictions. As the scale of photovoltaic power stations expands and the demand for predictions increases, this sequential prediction approach may lead to slow prediction speeds, making it difficult to meet real-time prediction requirements. (2) Feature extraction is a crucial step in photovoltaic power generation prediction. However, traditional feature extraction methods often focus solely on surface features, and fail to capture the inherent relationships between various influencing factors in photovoltaic power generation data, such as light intensity, temperature, and more. To overcome these limitations, this paper proposes a mid-term PV power prediction model that combines Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) and Informer models. This fusion model leverages the multi-output capability of the Informer model to ensure the timely generation of predictions for long sequences. Additionally, it harnesses the feature extraction ability of the GCN model from nodes, utilizing graph convolutional modules to extract feature information from the ‘query’ and ‘key’ components within the attention mechanism. This approach provides more reliable feature information for mid-term PV power prediction, thereby ensuring the accuracy of long sequence predictions. Results demonstrate that the GCN–Informer model significantly reduces prediction errors while improving the precision of power generation forecasting compared to the original Informer model. Overall, this research enhances the prediction accuracy of PV power generation and contributes to advancing the field of clean energy.