A Systemic and Contextual Framework to Define a Country’s 2030 Agenda from a Foresight Perspective

Abstract

A fundamental issue in the implementation of the 2030 Agenda at the national level refers to the systemic analysis of interactions of global targets, considering the context-specific understanding of these interactions within a long-term vision. Another critical issue is how to apply and combine different approaches and tools to provide a consistent analysis for evidence-based decision-making on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and global targets. Consistent with both concerns, a systemic and contextual framework to prioritize SDG targets for a country’s 2030 Agenda is proposed, by integrating fuzzy multicriteria decision-making methods, prospective structural analysis, and network theory tools. The applicability of the proposed framework could be demonstrated through a socio-technical experiment carried out during 2018 for the definition of the 2030 Agenda in Brazil. The experiment is especially designed to bring methodological insights to this decision-making process, and empirical results highlight the targets that will drive the Brazilian 2030 Agenda. Although the empirical results presented in this paper are exclusive to Brazil, we believe that the proposed framework can be replicated in other countries, especially those that are going to prioritize the global targets to be included in their respective Agendas.