Probabilistic Models and Deep Learning Models Assessed to Estimate Design and Operational Ocean Wave Statistics to Reduce Coastal Hazards

Abstract

Probabilistic models for long-term estimations and deep learning models for short-term predictions have been evaluated and analyzed for ocean wave parameters. Estimation of design and operational wave parameters for long-term return periods is essential for various coastal and ocean engineering applications. Three probability distributions, namely generalized extreme value distribution (EV), generalized Pareto distribution (PD), and Weibull distribution (WD), have been considered in this work. The design wave parameter considered is the maximal wave height for a specified return period, and the operational wave parameters are the mean maximal wave height and the highest occurring maximal wave height. For precise location-based estimation, wave heights are considered from a nested wave model, which has been configured to have a 10 km spatial resolution. As per availability, buoy-observed data are utilized for validation purposes at the Agatti, Digha, Gopalpur, and Ratnagiri stations along the Indian coasts. At the stations mentioned above, the long short-term memory (LSTM)-based deep learning model is applied to provide short-term predictions with higher accuracy. The probabilistic approach for long-term estimation and the deep learning model for short-term prediction can be used in combination to forecast wave statistics along the coasts, reducing hazards.