Revisiting Vrancea (Romania) Intermediate-Depth Seismicity: Some Statistical Characteristics and Seismic Quiescence Testing

Abstract

Background: The intermediate-depth seismicity in the Vrancea region (Romania) is characterized by localized and persistent earthquake activity that culminates about two or three times in a century with the occurrence of a large event (M ≥ 6.5). Here we have revisited some important seismicity characteristics, using earthquake catalog data spanning two different time periods: 1960–1999 and 2005–2013. Methods: we have determined the b-value of the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes, using a maximum likelihood procedure, and estimated the parameter β to quantify anomalous seismicity rate decreases and increases. Results: by using data from the first period, we have confirmed the existence of a decreased b-value in the deepest part of the seismogenic zone; by using data from the second period, we have statistically confirmed the seismic quiescence that preceded the occurrence of the 1977 M7.4 Vrancea earthquake. Conclusions: the decreased b-value has been interpreted either in terms of an increased lithostatic stress with depth or as an indicator of the depth range where the next major Vrancea earthquake may occur. The time variation of the seismicity parameter β may reveal anomalous seismic quiescence and increased earthquake rates that may precede the occurrence of large earthquakes.