Back-Analysis of the Abbadia San Salvatore (Mt. Amiata, Italy) Debris Flow of 27–28 July 2019: An Integrated Multidisciplinary Approach to a Challenging Case Study

Abstract

On 27–28 July 2019, in a catchment of the Mt. Amiata area (Italy), an extreme rainfall induced a debris flow, which caused a channeled erosive process just upstream of the Abbadia San Salvatore village, the obstruction of a culvert at the entrance to the urban area, and the subsequent flooding of the village. In this paper, we present the back analysis of this event. The complexity of this case study is due to several peculiar characteristics, but above all, to the clogging of the culvert, a phenomenon difficult to simulate numerically. The methodology used for the reconstruction of the event is based on a multidisciplinary approach. A geological field investigation was carried out to characterize the catchment and assess the availability of debris. Then, a cascade of numerical models was employed to reconstruct the debris flow: the FLO-2D software was used to model the runoff along the hydrographic network while the mobile-bed debris flow TRENT2D model, available through the WEEZARD system, was used to quantify both the erosion and deposition processes that occurred during the event. To simulate the culvert clogging, a novel modelling procedure was developed and applied. Despite the challenging framework, the results, in terms of debris volume, erosion rates, deposition area, and timing of the culvert obstruction, agree reasonably well with the observed data. It is worth noticing that these results were obtained mainly using parameters set a priori, namely calibrated on a physical basis. This proves that the proposed methodology is robust and effective, with good predictive capability. Therefore, it may be considered, according to the European Union (EU) Flood Directive, an “appropriate practice and the best available technology that does not imply excessive costs” to support predictive hazard mapping of situations as the one here considered.