Toward a Plausible Methodology to Assess Rock Slope Instabilities at a Regional Scale

Abstract

Slope failures along road cuts and highways, occurring due to heavy rainfalls or earthquakes, pose significant threats to people, vehicles, and emergency plans. In the present study, a methodology to assess the stability of rock slopes at a regional scale is proposed using a kinematic analysis and a probabilistic limit equilibrium analysis for plane sliding and wedge failure modes. The workflow adopted is described through its implementation along the main road network of the island of Thasos, located in northern Greece. On-site investigations and measurements along the island’s road network formed the basis of the present study. The results of the kinematic analysis showed that the joint sets, which were identified during the on-site investigations, formed critical intersections that could lead to wedge and plane sliding failures. The on-site measurements and the results of the kinematic analysis were utilized to perform limit equilibrium back-analyses at sites of identified failures due to the water pressure effects to probabilistically estimate the material strength properties of the joints. Subsequently, numerous limit equilibrium analyses were executed within a Monte Carlo simulation framework to produce representative fragility curves of rock slopes against plane sliding and wedge failures along the main road network, due to earthquake loading and water pressures.