Application of Scenario Forecasting Methods and Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Modeling in Substantiation of Urban Area Development Strategies

Abstract

The existing approaches to supporting the tasks of managing the urban areas development are aimed at choosing an alternative from a set of ready-made solutions. Little attention is paid to the procedure for the formation and analysis of acceptable options for the use of territories. The study's purpose is to understand how various factors affect the efficiency of using the city’s territory. In addition, we are trying to use this understanding to assess the possible consequences of the implementation of management decisions on the territory transformation. We use the method of structuring knowledge about the study area, taking into account the influence of the external environment. This method implements the significant factors list formation and assessment of their impact on development. Fuzzy cognitive modeling was used to build scenarios for identifying contradictions in achieving sustainable development goals. The scenario modeling results are necessary for the formation of the alternative. Alternatives are evaluated on the basis of fuzzy multi-criteria optimization. The integration of methods makes it possible to increase the objectivity of the analysis of strategies for urban areas development. The Belman-Zadeh method is used to analyze the selected options based on criteria that determine the feasibility and effectiveness of each project.