Research on Optimization Method of Evaporation Duct Prediction Model

Abstract

The sea surface roughness parameterization and the universal stability function are key components of the evaporation duct prediction model based on the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory. They determine the model’s performance, which in turn affects the efficiency and accuracy of electromagnetic applications at sea. In this study, we collected layered meteorological and hydrological observation data and preprocessed them to obtain near-surface reference modified refractivity profiles. We then optimized the sea surface roughness parameterization and the universal stability function using particle swarm optimization and simulated annealing algorithms. The results show that the particle swarm optimization algorithm outperforms the simulated annealing algorithm. Compared to the original model, the particle swarm optimization algorithm improved the prediction accuracy of the model by 5.09% under stable conditions and by 9.97% under unstable conditions, demonstrating the feasibility of the proposed method for optimizing the evaporation duct prediction model. Subsequently, we compared the electromagnetic wave propagation path losses under two different evaporation duct heights and modified refractivity profile states, confirming that the modified refractivity profile is more suitable as the accuracy criterion for the evaporation duct prediction model.