Spatial and Temporal Variability Characteristics of Future Carbon Stocks in Anhui Province under Different SSP Scenarios Based on PLUS and InVEST Models

Abstract

With the rapid development of the social economy, human activities have had a severe impact on the environment. The global climate issue caused by CO2 emissions has attracted the attention of various countries around the world, and reducing CO2 emissions is urgent. This article simulates the changes in carbon storage in Anhui Province from 2030 to 2070 based on SSP1-2.5, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-5.8 scenarios. First, based on the land use data of Anhui Province in 2010, the PLUS model was used to simulate the land use data of 2015, and the accuracy of the simulation results was verified against real data. Then, the land use data of Anhui Province were simulated in the future period from 2030 to 2070 under different SSP scenarios. Finally, based on the InVEST model, the spatiotemporal changes in future carbon storage were calculated. The research showed that, during the period of 2030 to 2070, the spatial distribution of carbon storage in Anhui Province under three scenario simulations generally showed a distribution pattern of high carbon storage in the north and south, and low carbon storage in the central region. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, Anhui Province’s carbon storage decreased by 0.33 million tons, a decrease of 0.029%. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, carbon storage increased by 0.25 million tons, an increase of 0.021%. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, carbon storage decreased by 1.54 million tons, a decrease of 0.133%. The reasons for the changes in carbon storage were related to the areas of arable land, forest land, and grassland. This study can provide a reference for future low-carbon land use planning.