The Spatial Pattern Evolution of Rural Settlements and Multi-Scenario Simulations since the Initiation of the Reform and Opening up Policy in China

Abstract

Since the inception of China’s reform and opening-up policy, the rapidly advancing process of urbanization and the primacy accorded to urban development policies have imparted increasingly profound ramifications on rural domains. Nonetheless, antecedent research has predominantly fixated on urban sprawl, overlooking the spatial metamorphosis of rural settlements and the prospective developmental trajectories within the policy paradigm. Consequently, this inquiry endeavors to scrutinize the evolution of the spatial configuration of rural settlements in She County from the advent of reform and opening-up (1980–2020) utilizing remote sensing data. In tandem, through scenario delineation and the utilization of the CLUE-S model, it aspires to prognosticate the evolving trends in the spatial arrangements of rural settlements in She County by 2035. The empirical findings divulge that (1) The temporal progression of rural settlement spatial configurations in She County over the preceding four decades can be delineated into two discernible phases. From 1980 to 2000, alterations in the number, extent, and spatial morphological attributes of rural settlements remained circumscribed. While the count of rural settlements registered a diminution (by 3), the aggregate extent experienced a marginal augmentation (by 8.45%), concomitant with a gradual gravitation towards regular boundaries, manifesting a stochastic distribution throughout the investigation expanse. Conversely, from 2000 to 2020, the quantity and extent of rural settlements in She County underwent a precipitous augmentation (92 and 36.37%, respectively), characterized by irregular peripheries. (2) The CLUE-S model achieved an overall precision of 0.929, underscoring its applicability in emulating fluctuations in rural settlements. (3) Within the new-type urbanization scenario, the cumulative expanse of rural settlements witnessed a decline of 35.36% compared to the natural development scenario, marked by substantial conversions into grassland and urban land usage. Furthermore, orchestrated planning and directive measures have propelled the consolidation of rural settlements in She County, engendering a more equitable and standardized layout. Under the aegis of the ecological conservation scenario, the total rural settlement area recorded a 0.38% reduction vis-à-vis the natural development scenario, primarily entailing competitive coexistence with arable land, grassland, and urban land usage in spatial terms.