Using a Grey Niche Model to Predict the Water Consumption in 31 Regions of China

Abstract

Regional development brings significant changes in industrial structure and water consumption. Researching the trend in water consumption by changes in industrial structure can promote water conservation. The grey niche model describes the industrial changes in China and analyzes the water consumption of different leading industries. Using data from 2014 to 2019, and taking the economy as the influencing reason and the industrial niche as the weight, water consumption was predicted. The average percentage errors of the prediction results were all less than 0.1%. While improving the forecasting accuracy, the water consumption forecasting has been strengthened. The calculation results show that regional industry is undergoing transformation, and tertiary industry is rising in the national economy. The successful implementation of industrial water-saving measures has kept the water consumption of industrially developed cities stable but the rapid development of tertiary industries will increase water consumption. Incorporating changes in industrial structure into water use analysis allows the Chinese government to draft water conservation policies for various industries.