An Assessment of Long-Term Climate Change on Building Energy in Indonesia

Abstract

This paper reports on modelling outcomes for improvements to building energy performance in Indonesia. Long-term climate effects due to building energy demand and carbon emissions are also considered. The global change assessment model (GCAM) was used to generate the related end-user building energy data, including socioeconomics, for urban areas of Indonesia. As a comprehensive study, the total life cycle of carbon in the building sector and the concept of zero-carbon buildings, including energy efficiency, zero-emissions electricity and fuel-switching options, were considered. Building shell conductance (U-value) of the building envelope, floor area ratio (FAR), air conditioner (AC) efficiency, electrical appliance (APL) efficiency, rooftop photovoltaic (PV) performance and ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems were considered as parameters to mitigate carbon emissions under the operational energy category in the GCAM. Carbon mitigation associated with the cement production process was considered in the raw material category. Urban population and labour productivity in Indonesia were used as base inputs with projected growth rates to 2050 determined from the available literature. Low growth rate ‘LowRate’ and high growth rate ‘HighRate’ were considered as variable inputs for U-value, FAR, AC efficiency, APLs efficiency and PV capacity factor to model emissions mitigation. The energy consumption of the GSHP was compared to the conventional reverse cycle ACs to identify the potential of the GSHP as a fuel-switching option. In the GCAM, the benchmark (base case scenario) data set was generated based on input parameters (urban population and labour productivity rate) only for the residential building sector in Indonesia. Total potential carbon emissions mitigation was found to be 432 Mt CO2-e for the residential building sector in Indonesia over 2020–2050. It was found that an average of 24% carbon emissions mitigation could be achieved by 2020–2030 and 76% by 2031–2050.