Decision Trees for Predicting Mortality in Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

Abstract

Current prognostic risk scores in cardiac surgery do not benefit yet from machine learning (ML). This research aims to create a machine learning model to predict one-year mortality of a patient after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI). We adopt a modern gradient boosting on decision trees classifier (GBDTs), specifically designed for categorical features. In combination with a recent technique for model interpretations, we developed a feature analysis and selection stage, enabling the identification of the most important features for the prediction. We base our prediction model on the most relevant features, after interpreting and discussing the feature analysis results with clinical experts. We validated our model on 270 consecutive TAVI cases, reaching a C-statistic of 0.83 with CI [0.82, 0.84]. The model has achieved a positive predictive value ranging from 57% to 64%, suggesting that the patient selection made by the heart team of professionals can be further improved by taking into consideration the clinical data we identified as important and by exploiting ML approaches in the development of clinical risk scores. Our approach has shown promising predictive potential also with respect to widespread prognostic risk scores, such as logistic European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE II) and the society of thoracic surgeons (STS) risk score, which are broadly adopted by cardiologists worldwide.