Predicting Recurrence in Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma after Radical Surgery Using an AX-Unet Pancreas Segmentation Model and Dynamic Nomogram

Abstract

This study aims to investigate the reliability of radiomic features extracted from contrast-enhanced computer tomography (CT) by AX-Unet, a pancreas segmentation model, to analyse the recurrence of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) after radical surgery. In this study, we trained an AX-Unet model to extract the radiomic features from preoperative contrast-enhanced CT images on a training set of 205 PDAC patients. Then we evaluated the segmentation ability of AX-Unet and the relationship between radiomic features and clinical characteristics on an independent testing set of 64 patients with clear prognoses. The lasso regression analysis was used to screen for variables of interest affecting patients’ post-operative recurrence, and the Cox proportional risk model regression analysis was used to screen for risk factors and create a nomogram prediction model. The proposed model achieved an accuracy of 85.9% for pancreas segmentation, meeting the requirements of most clinical applications. Radiomic features were found to be significantly correlated with clinical characteristics such as lymph node metastasis, resectability status, and abnormally elevated serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA 19-9) levels. Specifically, variance and entropy were associated with the recurrence rate (p < 0.05). The AUC for the nomogram predicting whether the patient recurred after surgery was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.78–0.99) and the C index was 0.62 (95% CI: 0.48–0.78). The AX-Unet pancreas segmentation model shows promise in analysing recurrence risk factors after radical surgery for PDAC. Additionally, our findings suggest that a dynamic nomogram model based on AX-Unet can provide pancreatic oncologists with more accurate prognostic assessments for their patients.