Prediction and Evolution of Carbon Storage of Terrestrial Ecosystems in the Qinling Mountains North Slope Region, China

Abstract

The Qinling Mountains north slope region constitutes a vital terrestrial ecosystem reserve within China. This study employs land use and land cover (LULC) data spanning from 1990 to 2020. Utilizing methodologies encompassing land use classification, transfer matrix analysis, and the application of the PLUS and InVEST models, this research endeavors to elucidate the spatial-temporal dynamics of land use patterns and associated carbon storage in the region. These analyses are conducted within the context of four prospective scenarios: Natural Development Priority, Arable Land Protection Priority, Ecological Protection Priority, and Urban Development Priority, all projected onto the landscape for 2030. Notably, our findings reveal a consistent decline in carbon storage across all four scenarios for 2030 compared to the baseline year 2020. This stark reality presents substantial challenges to achieving the region’s targets of carbon peaking and eventual carbon neutrality. Furthermore, this paper meticulously delineates six key drivers contributing to this decline in carbon storage. In conclusion, it proffers nine strategic recommendations aimed at augmenting carbon storage, with an overarching objective of establishing a harmonized mechanism capable of balancing urban development, safeguarding cultivated land, fortifying ecological preservation, and enhancing carbon sequestration within the area.