Variation Trend Prediction of Dam Displacement in the Short-Term Using a Hybrid Model Based on Clustering Methods

Abstract

The deformation behavior of a dam can comprehensively reflect its structural state. By comparing the actual response with model predictions, dam deformation prediction models can detect anomalies for effective advance warning. Most existing dam deformation prediction models are implemented within a single-step prediction framework; the single-time-step output of these models cannot represent the variation trend in the dam deformation, which may contain important information on dam evolution during the prediction period. Compared with the single value prediction, predicting the tendency of dam deformation in the short term can better interpret the dam’s structural health status. Aiming to capture the short-term variation trends of dam deformation, a multi-step displacement prediction model of concrete dams is proposed by combining the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) algorithm, the k-harmonic means (KHM) algorithm, and the error minimized extreme learning machine (EM-ELM) algorithm. The model can be divided into three stages: (1) The CEEMDAN algorithm is adopted to decompose dam displacement series into different signals according to their timing characteristics. Moreover, the sample entropy (SE) method is used to remove the noise contained in the decomposed signals. (2) The KHM clustering algorithm is employed to cluster the denoised data with similar characteristics. Furthermore, the sparrow search algorithm (SSA) is utilized to optimize the KHM algorithm to avoid the local optimal problem. (3) A multi-step prediction model to capture the short-term variation of dam displacement is established based on the clustered data. Engineering examples show that the model has good prediction performance and strong robustness, demonstrating the feasibility of applying the proposed model to the multi-step forecasting of dam displacement.