A Machine-Learning-Based Risk-Prediction Tool for HIV and Sexually Transmitted Infections Acquisition over the Next 12 Months

Abstract

Background: More than one million people acquire sexually transmitted infections (STIs) every day globally. It is possible that predicting an individual’s future risk of HIV/STIs could contribute to behaviour change or improve testing. We developed a series of machine learning models and a subsequent risk-prediction tool for predicting the risk of HIV/STIs over the next 12 months. Methods: Our data included individuals who were re-tested at the clinic for HIV (65,043 consultations), syphilis (56,889 consultations), gonorrhoea (60,598 consultations), and chlamydia (63,529 consultations) after initial consultations at the largest public sexual health centre in Melbourne from 2 March 2015 to 31 December 2019. We used the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve to evaluate the model’s performance. The HIV/STI risk-prediction tool was delivered via a web application. Results: Our risk-prediction tool had an acceptable performance on the testing datasets for predicting HIV (AUC = 0.72), syphilis (AUC = 0.75), gonorrhoea (AUC = 0.73), and chlamydia (AUC = 0.67) acquisition. Conclusions: Using machine learning techniques, our risk-prediction tool has acceptable reliability in predicting HIV/STI acquisition over the next 12 months. This tool may be used on clinic websites or digital health platforms to form part of an intervention tool to increase testing or reduce future HIV/STI risk.