Modelling Spatial Heterogeneity in the Effects of Natural and Socioeconomic Factors, and Their Interactions, on Atmospheric PM2.5 Concentrations in China from 2000–2015

Abstract

In recent years, atmospheric PM2.5 pollution in China has become increasingly severe and exploring the relationships among its influencing factors is important in the prevention and control of air pollution. Although previous studies have identified complexity in variations in PM2.5 concentrations and recognized the interaction of multiple factors, little quantitative information is available on the evolution of the relationships among these factors, their spatial heterogeneity, and the multiscale interactions between them. In this study, geographical detector and multiscale geographically weighted regression models have been used to explore the multiscale interactions among natural and socioeconomic factors and PM2.5 concentration in China over the period 2000–2015. The results indicate that the relationship between natural factors and PM2.5 concentration is stronger than that for socioeconomic factors. The type of interaction between each factor is dominated by bivariate and nonlinear enhancement, exhibiting strong interactions between natural factors and anthropogenic factors. Although the effect of each factor on PM2.5 is complex, the relative influence of both human activities and social factors is shown to have gradually increased over time and population, agriculture, urbanization, and socioeconomic activities in general make important contributions to PM2.5. In addition, the scale of effects related to natural factors is smaller and more stable compared to the influence of human activities during the period 2000-2015. There are significant differences in the way natural factors and socioeconomic factors affect PM2.5, and there is strong non-stationarity of spatial relationships. Factors associated with topography, vegetation (NDVI), climate (temperature), natural sources, and agricultural activity are shown to be important determinants of PM2.5 across China and warrant significant attention in terms of managing atmospheric pollution. The study demonstrates that spatial differences in the direction, intensity, and scale of each factor should be accounted for to improve prevention and control measures and alleviate regional PM2.5 pollution.