Methodology for Determining the Nearest Destinations for the Evacuation of People and Equipment from a Disaster Area to a Safe Area

Abstract

Floods are the most frequent natural disasters in the world. In the system of warning and flood protection of areas at risk of flooding in the event of its occurrence, it seems advisable to initially work out the possibility of evacuating the population, animals, equipment, material values, etc. In this article, a methodology for determining destinations (points of destination) for the evacuation of people and equipment from a predicted flood zone (of a natural disaster) to a safe area is proposed based upon the criterion of the shortest possible distance. In the paper, a scenario is considered that involves the contours of the flood zone boundaries for several variants of the intensity of the probable development of future events (with the aid of geoinformation technologies), and the coordinates of the objects to evacuate are permanent and known in advance. With the known coordinates of the objects and the closest points of the boundary of the predicted flood zone, the shortest distances can be calculated. Based on these calculations, the appropriate destinations for evacuation are determined. The proposed methodology can be used for flood forecasting and flood zone modeling to assess the economic and social risks of their aftereffects and to allow the public, local governments, and other organizations to better understand the potential risks of floods and to identify the measures needed to save lives and avoid damage to and loss of property and equipment. This methodology, in contrast to known approaches, allows the determination of the nearest locations for the evacuation of people and equipment from a flood zone (of a natural disaster) to safe areas, to be determined for several variants, depending on the possible development of future events. The methodology is algorithm-driven and presented in the form of a flowchart and is suitable for use in the appropriate software. The proposed methodology is an introduction to the next stages of research related to the determination of safe places for evacuation of people and their property (equipment) to safe places. This is especially important in case of sudden weather events (flash floods).