The Dynamic Simulation and Potential Hazards Analysis of the Yigong Landslide in Tibet, China

Abstract

High-altitude and long-runout landslides, commonly forming chains of secondary disasters, frequently occur in the Yigong Zangbo Basin, which has a complex geologic background. Identifying the potential hazards posed by disaster chains plays a vital role in assessing geohazards. Analysis of the potential hazards related to a landslide that occurred on 9 April 2000, in Tibet, China, known as the Yigong landslide, is studied using remote sensing technology and numerical simulations. Due to the warming of the climate, more extreme dry–wet cycles, and frequent earthquakes, the Yigong landslide area became extremely fragile and more sensitive to perturbations. Based on multiphase optical remote sensing and InSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) technology, risk monitoring and identification of the Yigong landslide was conducted. The results show that there are two displacement deformation areas. These areas have a maximum displacement deformation rate of 60 mm/year and a maximum accumulative displacement of 160 mm and are likely to reoccur. Additionally, the risks of deformation areas collapsing and blocking the river, which would likely form a disaster chain, were analyzed by prediction simulation based on the numerical back-analysis associated with the 2000 Yigong landslide. The results show that if only one displacement deformation area collapses, the maximum accumulation height would reach 76 m; if the displacement deformation areas both collapse, the maximum accumulation height would reach 106 m. Both conditions would set off disaster chains resulting in river blockages and subsequent flood disasters. Therefore, this work demonstrates that prediction analysis based on remote sensing technology and numerical simulations are effective methods for identifying potential geohazards.