Thermal Load Prediction in Residential Buildings Using Interpretable Classification

Abstract

Energy efficiency is a critical aspect of engineering due to the associated monetary and environmental benefits it can bring. One aspect in particular, namely, the prediction of heating and cooling loads, plays a significant role in reducing energy use costs and in minimising the risks associated with climate change. Recently, data-driven approaches, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), have provided cost-effective and high-quality solutions for the prediction of heating and cooling loads. However, few studies have focused on interpretable classifiers that can generate not only reliable predictive systems but are also easy to understand for the stakeholders. This research investigates the applicability of ML techniques (classification) in the prediction of the heating and cooling loads of residential buildings using a dataset consisting of various variables such as roof area, building height, orientation, surface area, wall area, and glassing area distribution. Specifically, we sought to determine whether models that derive rules are competitive in terms of performance when compared with other classification techniques for assessing the energy efficiency of buildings, in particular the associated heating and cooling loads. To achieve this aim, several ML techniques including k-nearest neighbor (kNN), Decision Tree (DT)-C4.5, naive Bayes (NB), Neural Network (Nnet), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Rule Induction (RI)- Repeated Incremental Pruning to Produce Error (RIPPER) were modelled and then evaluated based on residential data using a range of model evaluation parameters such as recall, precision, and accuracy. The results show that most classification techniques generate models with good predictive power with respect to the heating or cooling loads, with better results achieved with interpretable classifiers such as Rule Induction (RI), and Decision Trees (DT).