A Comprehensive Approach to Earthquake-Resilient Infrastructure: Integrating Maintenance with Seismic Fragility Curves

Abstract

A severe seismic event can cause significant damage to infrastructure systems, resulting in severe direct and indirect consequences. A comprehensive risk-management approach is required for earthquake-resilient infrastructure. This study presents an innovative approach to seismic risk assessment and aims to integrate maintenance considerations with seismic fragility curves. The proposed methodology uniquely quantifies the impact of maintenance conditions on seismic risk, presenting a dynamic perspective of risk changes attributable to maintenance and deterioration. The methodology hinges on the hypothesis that the maintenance condition of the infrastructure and the level of deterioration impacts the seismic resilience of the infrastructure. The methodology synergizes the Building Performance Index (BPI) and the deterioration over time to evaluate their cumulative effect on fragility curves to estimate the infrastructure’s total risk over the lifecycle (TRLC). This proposed methodology is demonstrated through a case study of a low-voltage substation in Bik’at HaYarden, Israel. A Monte Carlo simulation was carried out for the specific conditions of the analyzed substation. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis was performed to understand better the effect of maintenance conditions over time on the TRLC. Key insights reveal a statistically significant correlation between infrastructure performance and maintenance and their consequential impact on the TRLC. Notably, declining maintenance conditions intensify seismic risk uncertainties. The research proposes to researchers, stakeholders, and decision-makers a novel comprehensive perspective on the indispensability of maintenance for seismic risk management and mitigation.