Investigating the Effect of Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) on Social Equity—Examining the Displacement of Footscray, Melbourne

Abstract

As Melbourne faces exponential population growth, the necessity for resilient urban planning strategies becomes critical. These strategies include mixed land use, density, diversity, and sustainable transportation through transit-oriented development (TOD). While TOD promises to accommodate growing populations and address environmental concerns, it also raises issues regarding its unintended consequences on poverty and inequality, notably through residential displacement and gentrification. This study investigates the impacts of TOD construction on inequality in Footscray, employing spatial analysis techniques like the hedonic price model (HPM), robust regression analysis, and Pearson correlation analysis. It aims to understand how spatial factors influence housing prices and their correlations. Additionally, the study uses observational spatial analysis via Google Street View (GSV) to examine indices such as housing development type, traffic signage, sanitation facilities, and house beautification. This approach seeks to build an evaluation framework to assess the extent of TOD street reconstruction and its impact on gentrification and displacement. The research adapts existing knowledge to create a tool for reviewing past planning decisions and assessing the fairness of TOD planning implementation. By providing assessment and guidance to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of TOD, this study contributes to the advancement of urban-planning practices, offering insights into mixed land use and effective strategies to balance economic development and social equity, thereby enhancing community resilience. Ultimately, this research deepens our understanding of the impacts of TOD on urban inequality and offers practical tools and insights for more equitable and sustainable urban development.