Simulation Modelling for the Promotion of Green Residence Based on the Theory of Sustainability—Taking Jiangsu Province as an Example

Abstract

Green residences have enormous potential for energy savings, emission reduction, and other comprehensive benefits, and their growth is crucial to achieving China’s carbon neutrality and carbon peaking targets. Nevertheless, at the moment, the national green residence is impacted by complicated factors at several levels, including government agencies, green residence builders, and green residence consumers, which results in the low-quality development of domestic green residences overall. As of 2020, 94% of all labeled green residences are design-label residences that can only be achieved during the design stage, while less than 10% are operational-label residences with stronger energy and emission-saving benefits. This causes the phenomenon of “green residences on the planning” to be serious. In order to accomplish the promotion of high-quality development of green residences and to promote green residences in China, this paper analyzes the influencing factors of green residence promotion from the multi-level perspective of macro-landscape signals, meso-collective agent green residences, and micro-individual agent consumers, based on the multi-level perspective (MLP) framework of sustainability theory. The paper subsequently builds a simulation model of green residence promotion using the agent-based system dynamics modeling method. Additionally, Jiangsu Province’s green residence promotion data are chosen for analogue simulation experiments, and the simulation results are also used to analyze the success conditions as well as the path to green residence promotion. This study demonstrates that (1) the agent-based simulation model of dynamics for the green residence promotion system has high reference value for the simulation of the promotion of green residences, and the model can clearly simulate the impact of micro-individual agent–consumer factors on the promotion of green residences; (2) in order to promote green residences, exterior landscape signals must be continuously improved; the stronger the landscape signals, the quicker the development of operationally labeled green residences; (3) priority is given to the development of two-star design-labeled green residences before 2035, and three-star operationally labeled residences will occupy the majority of the market after 2040. Meanwhile, the duration of landscape signals and the change in behavioral preferences of individual agents must be maintained for a long time.