Exploring the Opportunities and Gaps in the Transformation of Modern Rural Housing in Southern China to Net Zero Energy Buildings

Abstract

This study explores modern residential buildings in rural areas of Wuhan and Guangzhou to assess the feasibility of achieving net zero energy buildings (NZEBs) through the transformation of existing buildings in southern China’s hot-summer–cold-winter and hot-summer–warm-winter regions. Energy simulations under various climatic scenarios identify effective energy-saving measures, such as the use of photovoltaic power generation. The results highlight substantial renovation potential, with energy reductions of approximately 85 kWh/m² (RCP2.6), 90 kWh/m² (RCP4.5), and 115 kWh/m² (RCP8.5). Living patterns significantly influence energy use, especially in buildings with more rooms, where the gaps in the energy demand with net zero standards can reach 560.56 kWh. At the monthly scale, different climate scenarios impact the feasibility of achieving NZEBs, particularly under RCP8.5, where eight rural housing types fail to meet the requirements, with six exceeding 200 kWh energy deficits and the largest energy deficit occurs in June 2090 in Guangzhou, reaching 592.53 kWh, while under RCP2.6, only two buildings with more rooms fail to meet NZE. In summary, in the hot-summer cold-winter region, the energy demand is higher but so is the solar yield. Therefore, under the most adverse RCP8.5 scenario, NZEBs are achievable for 9 months of the year, which is 2 months more compared to Guangzhou under similar conditions. Even after net zero transformation, new rural housing will face greater energy-saving challenges in future climatic conditions, especially under higher concentration pathways.