Application of an Improved Method Combining Machine Learning–Principal Component Analysis for the Fragility Analysis of Cross-Fault Hydraulic Tunnels

Abstract

Machine learning (ML) approaches, widely used in civil engineering, have the potential to reduce computing costs and enhance predictive capabilities. However, many ML methods have yet to be applied to develop models that accurately analyze the nonlinear dynamic response of cross-fault hydraulic tunnels (CFHTs). To predict CFHT models and fragility curves effectively, we identify the most effective ML techniques and improve prediction capacity and accuracy by initially creating an integrated multivariate earthquake intensity measure (IM) from nine univariate earthquake IMs using principal component analysis. Structural reactions are then performed using incremental dynamic analysis by a multimedium-coupled interaction system. Four techniques are used to test ML–principal component analysis (PCA) feasibility. Meanwhile, mathematical statistical parameters are compared to standard probabilistic seismic demand models of expected and computed values using ML-PCA. Eventually, multiple stripe analysis–maximum likelihood estimation (MSA-MLE) is applied to assess the seismic performance of CFHTs. This study highlights that the Gaussian process regression and integrated IM can improve reliable probability and reduce uncertainties in evaluating the structural response. Thorough numerical analysis, using the suggested methodology, one can efficiently assess the seismic fragilities of the tunnel by the predicted model. ML-PCA techniques can be viewed as an alternate strategy for seismic design and CFHT performance enhancement in real-world engineering.