Evaluating Risk in Prefabricated Building Construction under EPC Contracting Using Structural Equation Modeling: A Case Study of Shaanxi Province, China

Abstract

Prefabricated buildings have the advantages of high efficiency and saving resources. However, China’s prefabricated buildings were built relatively late, and there are problems in terms of their low standardization, integration, and industrialization. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the risk of constructing prefabricated buildings under the engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) general contracting mode from the perspective of general contractors and to propose countermeasures for the key risks. Firstly, a risk evaluation index system was established via a literature analysis, and a questionnaire survey was used to collect the data. SPSS was used to conduct the data factor analysis to finally identify 4 first-level indicators and 14 second-level indicators. Then, a structural equation model (SEM) was developed to further evaluate the impact of each indicator on the risk of constructing prefabricated buildings under the EPC general contracting mode. The results showed that the construction and design risk had the greatest impact. Among them, the technical level of the construction personnel while conducting the hoisting, stacking, and protection of on-site materials and the lack of integrated design experience among the designers were the key points for risk control. On the one hand, this study explored the whole life cycle of a project, which makes up for the lack of risk analyses and the control being limited to a single engineering stage that has been presented in previous studies. On the other hand, in terms of the design, procurement, and construction as a whole research object, we found that the fuzzy evaluation method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) used in previous risk analyses and evaluation methods have defects. They cannot verify the rationality of the logical relationship between the evaluation indices. In contrast, this study used the SEM method to fill this research gap. This ensures the scientific nature of our research to the greatest extent. Additionally, we also found some problems with this type of research: the selection of the evaluation indicators and data collection vary with the region, project characteristics, project contracting mode, and risk management subject, which influence the results of studies. Overall, the SEM method established in this study provides a reference and can help us conduct similar research and model evaluations in other regions. This method can guide project implementers to make the best risk-management decisions, so it is of great significance for practitioners in this field.