A Real Estate Early Warning System Based on an Improved PSO-LSSVR Model—A Beijing Case Study

Abstract

The real estate market is vital for national economic development, and it is of great significance to research an early warning method to identify an abnormal status of the real estate market. In this study, a real estate early warning system based on the PSO-LSSVR model was created to train and test the indicator data of Beijing from 2000 to 2020, and to predict the early warning indicator of the Beijing real estate market from 2021 to 2030. The results showed that the warning status of the Beijing real estate market went from a fluctuation status to a stable “Normal” status from 2000 to 2020, and the warning status is expected to be more stable under a “Normal” status in the next decade under the same political and economic environment. The PSO-LSSVR model was found to have accurate prediction ability and demonstrated generalization ability. Furthermore, the warning status of the Beijing real estate market was analyzed in combination with national historical policies. Based on the results, this paper proposes policy recommendations to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the real estate market.