Ensuring Earthquake-Proof Development in a Swiftly Developing Region through Neural Network Modeling of Earthquakes Using Nonlinear Spatial Variables

Abstract

Northern Pakistan, the center of major construction projects due to the commencement of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, is among the most earthquake-prone regions globally owing to its tectonic settings. The area has experienced several devastating earthquakes in the past, and these earthquakes pose a severe threat to infrastructure and life. Several researchers have previously utilized advanced tools such as Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) algorithms for earthquake predictions. This technological advancement helps with construction innovation, for instance, by designing earthquake-proof buildings. However, previous studies have focused mainly on temporal rather than spatial variables. The present study examines the impact of spatial variables to assess the performance of the different ML and DL algorithms for predicting the magnitude of short-term future earthquakes in North Pakistan. Two ML methods, namely Modular Neural Network (MNN) and Shallow Neural Network (SNN), and two DL methods, namely Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Deep Neural Network (DNN) algorithms, were used to meet the research objectives. The performance of the techniques was assessed using statistical measures, including accuracy, information gain analysis, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. These metrics were used to evaluate the impact of including a new variable, Fault Density (FD), and the standard seismic variables in the predictions. The performance of the proposed models was examined for different patterns of variables and different classes of earthquakes. The accuracy of the models for the training data ranged from 73% to 89%, and the accuracy for the testing data ranged from 64% to 85%. The analysis outcomes demonstrated an improved performance when using an additional variable of FD for the earthquakes of low and high magnitudes, whereas the performance was less for moderate-magnitude earthquakes. DNN, and SNN models, performed relatively better than other models. The results provide valuable insights about the influence of the spatial variable. The outcome of the present study adds to the existing pool of knowledge about earthquake prediction, fostering a safer and more secure regional development plan involving innovative construction.