Cost and Material Quantities Prediction Models for the Construction of Underground Metro Stations

Abstract

This paper addresses the gap in the scientific literature regarding construction cost estimates for the construction of underground metro stations. It provides preliminary cost estimation models using linear regression for use by the Greek underground metro public transport authority for planning future extensions to the Athens and Thessaloniki networks. At the same time, it contributes to the body of knowledge by proposing material quantity prediction models and presents a two-stage preliminary cost estimation model for the construction of civil engineering works of underground metro stations. Stage one uses the construction cost budgets of six metro stations in Greece to develop a multilinear regression equation for the prediction of the overall cost for construction of civil engineering works; stage two provides estimates of material quantities using linear regression, key quantity ratios, and artificial neural networks. The data analyzed are from the prior measurements of quantities for the construction of the Chaidari to Piraeus extension of the Athens Metro Line 3. After comparing the actual values of costs and quantities with the corresponding predictions, acceptable discrepancies are observed. All models provide estimates within ±25% discrepancies, which are acceptable at the conceptual planning phase in order to initiate project funding quests.