Influence of Vegetation on Outdoor Thermal Comfort in a High-Altitude Tropical Megacity: Climate Change and Variability Scenarios

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to show a study on the influence of vegetation on the outdoor thermal comfort (OTC) of a high-altitude tropical megacity. The OTC is evaluated by the PET (Physiological Equivalent Temperature) index and by establishing three simulation scenarios: (i) Current OTC, (ii) OTC under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway), and (iii) OTC under RCPs and ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation). The results show that the hourly variation range of the current OTC in urban areas with vegetation is greater (+3.15 °C) compared to impermeable areas. Outdoor thermal stress due to cold in vegetated areas is 1.29 °C lower compared to impervious areas. The effect of vegetated coverage on the improvement of urban OTC increases as the phenomenon of global warming intensifies. On average, in the current, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios for each 10% increase in urban vegetation coverage, an increase of 0.22, 0.24, and 0.28 °C in OTC is obtained, respectively. The hourly variation range of the PET index increases during the ENSO scenario (vegetated areas: +16.7%; impervious areas: +22.7%). In the context of climate change and variability, this study provides a reference point for decision-makers to assess possible planning options for improving OTC in megacities.