Coupling Analysis of Tunnel Construction Safety Risks Based on N-K Model and SD Causality Diagram

Abstract

Tunnel construction is characterized by its large scale, long periods and vulnerability to environmental impact, which pose great challenges to tunnel construction safety. In order to analyze the coupling mechanism of tunnel construction safety risks and assess these risks, we conducted a study on the coupling evaluation of these risks in order to improve tunnel construction safety risk management. By analyzing 150 accident cases related to tunnel construction safety, an N-K model (natural killing model) was constructed to quantify the risk level of each coupling form from four aspects—personnel risk factors, equipment risk factors, environmental risk factors and management risk factors—and the SD (system dynamics) causality diagram was used to construct risk element conduction paths and identify the key influencing factors of different coupling forms. The research results show that with the increase in risk coupling factors, the risk of tunnel construction safety accidents also increases; weak personnel safety awareness, aging and wear of equipment, poor operating environment and construction site management chaos are the key risk factors whose prevention needs to be focused on. The related research results can provide a new method for decision makers to assess tunnel construction safety risks and enrich the research on tunnel construction safety risk management.