Contribution and Marginal Effects of Landscape Patterns on Thermal Environment: A Study Based on the BRT Model

Abstract

Urban landscape patterns significantly impact land surface temperature (LST) and the urban heat island (UHI) effect. This study employs the boosted regression tree (BRT) model and variance partitioning analysis to examine the contributions and relationships of two-dimensional and three-dimensional building and vegetation patterns to LST, and their marginal effects at different heights. The results show that the dominant indicators affecting LST differ between buildings and vegetation, with three-dimensional building features being slightly more important than two-dimensional features (percentage of landscape of buildings) and two-dimensional vegetation features (three-dimensional green index) having a greater impact than three-dimensional features. When both buildings and vegetation are considered, building patterns still have significant explanatory power. Building height differences influence each indicator’s contribution and marginal effects on LST, with lower-height areas seeing a joint dominance of buildings and vegetation on LST changes, and higher-height areas showing greater impact from vegetation indicators. Increasing the percentage of landscape of vegetation (PLAND_V) provides the best cooling effect in lower-building-height areas, but in higher-building-height areas, the cooling effect weakens, requiring additional vegetation indicators to assist in cooling.