Spatial Dependencies and the Relationship between Subjective Perception and Objective Environmental Risks in Lithuania

Abstract

The effects of objective environmental indicators on subjective risk perceptions are under-researched and bring new frontiers to environmental risk perception research. The aim of this article is to analyze the spatial distribution of environmental risks in Lithuania, to identify social-psychological factors that determine variances of risk perception, and to contrast perception data with objective environmental data. This article is based on the representative national survey of 2007 respondents conducted from September to October of 2020 in Lithuania, and on the objective indicators of flood risk, air quality, water pollution, and forest fires. Analytical methods used in this article include spatial autocorrelation as well as spatial and linear regressions. Spatial analysis of objective environmental risk indicators reveal that the five biggest cities in Lithuania experience higher levels of environmental risks. Flood risk perceptions are spatially related to objective flood risks, and the relation is not significant for other types of risks. Place of residence, gender, education, and income are significant factors explaining risk perceptions. Place of residence is negatively moderating the effect of objective environmental risks on perceptions, as people in the biggest cities underestimate risks, especially from air pollution.