Scenario Analysis of Shorelines, Coastal Erosion, and Land Use/Land Cover Changes and Their Implication for Climate Migration in East and West Africa

Abstract

Climate change-induced sea level rise, shoreline changes, and coastal erosion are projected to drive massive population displacement and mobility in Africa. This study was conducted to examine the pattern of shoreline changes, coastal erosion, land use/land cover dynamics, projections, and their implications on internal migration in Senegal, Kenya, and Tanzania, representing West and East Africa. The digitized shoreline was mapped into erosion, accretion, and trend analysis, which further explains the vulnerability and physical processes that could trigger human displacement within the context of environmental/climate migration. Analysis of land use and land cover dynamics was obtained from Landsat 5 TM of 1986, Landsat 7 ET of 2006, Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS of 2016, and Landsat 9 OLI/TIRS of 2022 and computed using ArcGIS 10.7 for land-use change and percentage change in square kilometers was conducted to examine land use/land cover dynamics and their contributions to the risk of coastal erosion in the study regions. The outcome of the shoreline analysis reveals that 972.03 sqkm of land has been lost to coastal erosion in Senegal from 1986 to 2022 with 2016–2022 described as the period with the highest in terms of land loss. In Kenya, −463.30 sqkm of land has also been lost to coastal erosion and agents of wave processes, with 1986–2006 recording the highest share of −87.74% loss of valuable land, while in Tanzania, −1033.35 sqkm of valuable land has been lost from 1986 to 2022 to coastal erosion, with 2006–2016 alone recording −10.4634% of land loss. The result of the land use/land cover percentage change analysis indicates a massive loss of vegetation cover with a significant increase in settlement representing urbanization. The scenario analysis of the shoreline at 10, 20, and 30 m indicates that 567 persons per sqkm at 10 m, 25,904.6 persons per sqkm at 20 m, and 25,904.5 persons per sqkm will be displaced in Senegal at 30 m. In Kenya, 57,746 persons per sqkm are projected to be displaced at 10 m while 1210.5 persons per sqkm will be displaced at 20 m and 7737.32 persons per sqkm will be displaced at 30 m. In Tanzania, the maximum population density projected to be displaced at 10, 20, and 30 m is 10,260.97 per sqkm. Structured questionnaires were administered to elicit responses from coastal dwellers on their perception of coastal erosion and climate migration as part of ground truthing and the result of the survey affirms that coastal erosion and its exposure are the major drivers of climate migration in the study area.